Donald Trump has no record of public service, but he's adept at politics

Sign up for the View from Westminster email for expert analysis straight to your inbox

Get our free View from Westminster email

SIGN UP

I would like to be emailed about offers, events and updates from The Independent. Read our privacy notice

Now that Donald Trump is certain to be the Republican nominee for the presidency of the United States and leader of the free world, it is a timely moment to consider how he got here.

After all, this was no foregone conclusion. A year ago, Trump remained something of a rebel, to put it politely. Or, rather, a rebel without much chance of beating more experienced and statesmanlike figures in the first stage of the battle for the White House. Then he ran rings round them.

His outspokenness – admittedly a euphemism for some unvarnished hate rhetoric – became an advantage. Where Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz would temporise and calculate the impact of each word on some key constituency, Trump would just say what he thought – or least he would appear to.

Trump had no record of public service – again turned into a positive in a nation tired of the triangulating ways of modern politicians. “He’s not a politician,” supporters of all kinds would whoop at the nearest TV camera.

Of course he is a politician, but the perception of Trump as a man who made a financial success of himself in commerce before entering politics (and therefore didn’t need any compromising campaign donations) worked greatly to his advantage.

Trump has many obvious drawbacks, and for Europeans especially he is a puzzling figure. Then again, on this side of the pond we could never quite fathom why Americans once turned to Ronald Reagan or Richard Nixon, seen as extremist Cold Warriors and a danger to world peace.

And yet both those figures in due course used their political base as capital to be expended, to diplomatic advantage, making bold new deals with Russia and China. Once can only hope that Trump could follow a similar trajectory, to sensible, pragmatic government, in the White House.

One of the strengths of the democratic system is its ability to refresh itself, sometimes in surprising ways, such as “President Trump”.

But then he isn’t going to win. Is he?