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A drilling rig in Texas. Some think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel. Credit James Durbin/Midland Reporter-Telegram, via Associated Press

Over the last two and a half years, the oil industry has experienced its deepest downturn since at least the 1990s. If history is any guide, after every oil bust comes a recovery, if not a boom. But this time a recovery has been tentative, at best.

  1. What is the current price of oil?

    Brent crude oil, the main international benchmark, was trading at about $ a barrel on .

    The American benchmark was about $ a barrel.

  2. The Price of Oil

    What is the outlook for prices?

    Executives say they think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, which was pretty much the norm until the price collapse in late 2014.

    But after the oil price recovered from below $30 in early 2016 to over $50 by the end of the year, there was rising confidence in the industry that crude could rise to $60 a barrel or even higher later this year. That confidence was shaken by a price dip in early March, but most experts say they think oil and gasoline prices will recover during the heavy driving season in the summer.

    Nonetheless, the oil markets could be poised for another wild ride, with Wall Street and academic analysts predicting a price of anywhere between $40 and $70 by the end of the year. Wide swings are possible, if not probable. Political and economic upheaval in a major oil-producing country like Venezuela could cause a price spike.

  3. Who benefits from a rise in prices?

    First and foremost, oil companies, their employees and shareholders are winners as oil and gasoline prices rise. Producing states like Alaska, Louisiana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texasalso benefit because employment and tax revenues rise.

    Higher prices also mean more activity in the oil fields, which helps local businesses such as mom-and-pop services companies, construction firms that build housing, and truck dealerships.

    And, of course, producing countries benefit, like Nigeria, Russia,Saudi Arabia and Venezuela – all of which have been pressed financially in recent years. For the Saudis, there is an additional advantage: Higher oil prices make its state oil company, Saudi Aramco, more valuable for the initial public offering it has planned for later this year.

    There is also a potential benefit for the environment. Higher oil and gasoline prices encourage consumers to buy smaller vehicles and limit driving.

  4. Who loses from rising prices?

    Consumers of gasoline, diesel fuel and heating oil are losers, and those with lower incomes in the United States and abroad are affected disproportionately because fuel costs eat up a larger share of their earnings.

    Restaurants, hotels and retail outlets can be hurt when consumers have less to spend.

    But current oil and gasoline prices are roughly in balance, representing good economic news over all. They are high enough to help struggling states and countries, but not so high as to cause inordinate pain to consumers. Oil prices remain half what they were in the middle of 2014. Nevertheless, a price shock – either up or down – could come at any time.

  5. Photo
    Shaybah, the base for Saudi Aramco’s natural gas liquids plant, in Saudi Arabia. Credit Ian Timberlake/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
    How much power does OPEC have to dictate prices?

    We may soon find out. OPEC members produce nearly 40 percent of the global oil supply, so the group can be a force when united.

    Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s leader, reversed course late last year. After following a policy of record-breaking production to build and protect markets, especially in Asia, and to undercut competitors producing from shale and oil-sand deposits, the Saudis bent under the pressure of low oil prices.

    In November, the cartel agreed to limit production for six months starting in 2017. Saudi Arabia alone agreed to cut production by roughly 486,000 barrels a day, or about 5 percent of its output. The cartel’s total cut has amounted to as much as 1.2 million barrels a day.

    Weeks later, Russia and other oil-producing nations also agreed to lower their output, a rare sign of international cooperation that indicates exporters’ worries about continued low prices. That means an additional reduction of more than 550,000 barrels a day.

    OPEC then announced in May that it would cut oil production for longer than planned, agreeing to lower production levels through March 2018. Russia has said it will do the same.

    Several OPEC members that have undermined past accords, particularly Venezuela, are in no position to increase production significantly, making the new agreement more solid.

  6. What impact is the Trump administration likely to have?

    Oil industry executives are generally overjoyed by Donald J. Trump’s election as president. He supports industry efforts to build more pipelines, including the Keystone XL, which would deliver Canadian heavy oil to Gulf of Mexico refineries, and to open up more federal lands and deepwater prospects for drilling. He also says he would like to lower regulatory burdens on the industry and has expressed little sympathy for the international Paris climate accord, which aimed to lower global dependence on fossil fuels.

    All of those policies, if enacted, would increase oil and natural gas supplies on domestic and international markets – potentially lowering prices.

    On the other hand, any move by Mr. Trump to reinstitute sanctions lifted in the multilateral nuclear accord with Tehran could constrict Iranian exports. Since Iran has once again become a major exporter, that could mean hundreds of thousands of fewer barrels a day on the world market, lifting prices.